ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this figure in its October 2026 regional economic update, which employed the international threshold of $3 a day based on 2021 purchasing power parity to measure poverty. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the primary contributor to the rise in extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together make up another 47% of those living below the $3 poverty threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations collectively represent roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, the region hosts about 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty, with Sub-Saharan Africa holding a larger share. It is also notable that MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels are higher than before the pandemic and continue to grow.
Additionally, Pakistan’s poverty situation worsened when measured against the higher $4.20 daily income threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of the population below this line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, reaching approximately 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional assessment attributes this deterioration to several factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, elevated inflation, currency depreciation, and ongoing economic adjustment processes, all of which contributed to the country’s worsening poverty indicators.
Poverty levels surge after prolonged economic shocks
A recent household survey conducted earlier in 2026 led to a significant revision of regional poverty estimates, with Pakistan’s updated figures raising MENAAP’s projected 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision resulted in approximately 21 million additional people being counted among the region’s extreme poor. By September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, the other being Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite a return to positive growth, Pakistan’s economy continues to face high poverty levels. The latest forecasts indicate GDP growth of 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for 2026-27, with real GDP per capita expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is projected at 7.1% for 2026 and 8.2% for 2027, with the latter forecast surpassing the previous year’s estimate despite ongoing economic expansion.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% figure also reflects a statistical adjustment that altered regional comparisons, as in September 2025, the World Bank’s classification system shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not modify the country’s geographic identity or income classification, but the inclusion of Pakistan’s large population in MENAAP calculations affected regional poverty share figures. Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to the finance minister, stated that this reclassification impacted how regional poverty data are presented.
The October report further indicated a slowdown in economic performance across MENAAP in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025. The slowdown was driven by conflicts and disruptions affecting energy, logistics, and trade sectors across multiple economies. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing countries, including Pakistan, are expected to be relatively resilient within the regional outlook, with a forecasted growth of 4.3% for that group in 2026. Rising food and energy prices continue to strain household budgets across numerous countries in the region.